Commodities Analysis

Charts: Gold
INTRADAY   I   4HOUR   I   DAILY   I   WEEKLY.

Intraday

Gold 1 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 9 January 2019 at 12:44:00AM AEST

GOLD is dropping from the 1295 level in five minor waves, which can be start of a wave c of a higher degree. We know that after every five-waves a temporary three-wave pullback may follow, which can later look for resistance and a turn lower around the 1287/1290 region. Invalidation level is at 1295.

 

4 Hour

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 16 January 2019 at 6:31:00PM AEST

No change.
Precious metal was trading bullish from 1232 level and also unraveled a five-wave movement within leg five of A. This five-wave movement can now be retraced by a temporary three-wave pullback, labelled as wave B, which can look for support and a bounce near the Fibonacci ratio of 50.0 or 61.8(1265/1260 area). That said, currently we see price unfolding sub-wave b of B, which can look for a bearish reversal near the 1300 zone.

 

Daily

Gold Daily Chart
13 January 2019

Gold is recovering very sharply, but this is still seen as wave E), final leg of a big triangle in wave B. As such, bulls may start to slow down at the start of 2019, ideally at 1300-1330 area where we see 61.8% Fib projection level of red wave C).

 

Weekly

Gold Weekly Chart
02 January 2019

- a triangle in play within wave B

GOLD is trading bearish when observing the whole decline from 1922 level, but mostly sideways for the last three years, which we see it as part of a corrective movement within a big wave B of a three-wave A-B-C bearish reversal from the all-time highs. It can be approaching the final leg E) of a triangle which can look for a bearish continuation in 2019, unless it’s a flat that can push the price into 1400 area, before we may see a strong decline back to new lows for a wave C. That said, we believe that GOLD may drop below 1000 level in the upcoming months, before we may consider any bullish scenarios.

 

 

Charts: Oil
INTRADAY   I   4HOUR   I   DAILY   I   WEEKLY

Intraday

Oil 1 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 16 January 2019 at 6:56:00PM AEST

Crude oil slowed down in wave 4 as well, right here around ideal 38,2% Fibo. retracement. It's probably trading within a bullish triangle pattern that can send price even higher for wave 5. We remain bullish as long as price keeps trading nicely within channel range!

 

4 Hour

Oil 4 Hour Chart
Wednesday, 16 January 2019 at 6:30:00PM AEST

No change.
On energy we see price recovering in an impulsive manner, ideally unfolding a bigger three-wave reversal.
With current rally from the 42.46 level comes an indication that a low had been put in place for a former higher degree wave A and that a bigger black wave B correction can be in the making. In such case, a five-wave rally for sub-wave A of B can now be in development which can later look for resistance and a turn into a minor sub-wave B correction near the 55.30 area (area of Fibonacci projection zone of 261.8).
That said, at the moment we are tracking minor wave 4) of A, which can look for support around the Fibonacci projection zone of 38.2 and 50.0.

 

Daily

Oil Daily Chart
13 January 2019

Crude oil is making a recovery from the lows (42.65 level), giving us an idea that higher degree wave A has completed its impulsive drop down from the 76.8 area, and that a three-wave recovery as wave B can be in play. In such case, we can see more upside on the pair, especially once corrective sub-wave B of B fully develops.
Resistance for black wave B correction can be later found from 55.60 level to 64.00.

 

Weekly

Oil Weekly Chart
02 January 2019

Crude oil is unfolding a bigger, bearish wedged structure known as a EW ending diagonal. We specifically see price in an upcoming three-wave development down from wave IV) swing high. It can be wave V), which can look for support and a bullish reversal near the 27.50/22.00 region.

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